Fan IQ: Do Utah and Boise State Deserve National Title Consideration?

http://www.faniq.com/blog/Utah-and-Boise-State-Played-More-Difficult-Schedules-Than-Alabama-Did-Blog-15497

Where is the love for Utah and Boise State? Believe it or not both teams have a more difficult strength of schedule than number one ranked Alabama. Alabama’s strength of schedule (SOS) is ranked 79th by CBS. Utah is ranked considerably better at 56th and Boise State is pretty similar to Alabama at 76th. As we all know, Alabama will be playing Florida for the SEC title and effectively a shot at the national title. Yet, Utah and Boise State, also with perfect records, have no shot at the national title. Obviously, this doesn’t seem the slightest bit fair.

Do Utah and Boise State really have tougher schedules and resumes than Alabama though? Well, first let’s establish the quality of Alabama’s schedule. Overall, the record of the teams Alabama played is 66-76 (46.4%) and they played no Division I-AA teams. Certainly on that alone, we can recognize that there have been more impressive schedules. Alabama also played six teams that are eligible for bowl games. That’s about half of their schedule, which isn’t too bad. However, only two of those teams had 8 wins or more. To me, 6 or 7 win seasons aren’t too impressive. As evidence I present Notre Dame (6-6) and Wisconsin (7-5.) To Alabama’s credit, they defeated their toughest opponent (Georgia) on the road.

Utah’s combined opponent’s record was 73-72 (50.3%), but that does include a win over Division I-AA Weber State. I think we can agree that their opponents' record was more impressive than Alabama’s. However, Utah only played five bowl eligible teams and one team who advanced to the second round of the DI-AA playoffs (novel idea, playoffs!) Most of Utah’s strength of schedule actually comes from their conference wins. Utah did beat 4 different teams with 8 or more wins this season, including one out of conference. They beat 8-4 Air Force on the road and defeated 10-2 TCU and 10-2 Brigham Young at home. The Utes also defeated Oregon State, who could still slip into the Rose Bowl, at home. Overall, their schedule does seem to be a bit more impressive than Alabama’s, even though they are found in the bottom half of the Top 5 in the polls.

Boise’s State schedule, when further looked at, does not really look much more impressive than Alabama’s. Their combined opponent’s record is 64-80 (44.4%) and that includes one victory over a D-IAA team. Boise State’s top win is over 9-3 Oregon in Eugene. Outside of that, Boise State doesn’t have a single win over a team with more than 7 wins. Boise State’s schedule is full of 7-5 and 6-6 teams and then a few really bad bottom feeders. The Broncos did play 8 bowl eligible teams though, which is by far most of the three. Bowl eligible teams actually make up 75% of their schedule which is quite impressive. However, Boise State’s schedule is still the epitome of average.

What this really shows us is the power of name value. Obviously the names Alabama and SEC carry more weight than Utah, MWC, Boise State, or WAC carry. Unfortunately, this appears to be the only thing holding back the Utes and Broncos from contending from a title this year. If an undefeated Alabama with their schedule is worthy of playing in the national championship (and they are), then why aren’t Utah and Boise State? Clearly the only way to get over this bias that we’ve developed is to let the teams decide it on the field. However, that doesn’t appear to be happening soon anytime as ESPN’s new contract with the BCS means it will be around until 2014. I guess that just means that Utah and Boise State will have to wait until then to be actually taken seriously.

Gator Report: harvin Expected to Miss Tonight's Game

http://blogs.tampabay.com/gators/2008/12/harvin-expected.html

The week-long saga of will he or won't he seems to have come to a sad end for Florida fans.

Junior WR/RB Percy Harvin is not expected to play today when Florida meets Alabama in the SEC Championship game at the Georgia Dome.

In an early Saturday morning with ESPN, Florida coach Urban Meyer told reporter Tom Rinaldi that Harvin probably will not play today. Meyer told reporters Friday afternoon that he would evaluate Harvin following the team's Friday afternoon practice and make a determination then based on how well Harvin could move around. He has had his sprained right ankle in a boot all week.

ESPN's College GameDay is in Atlanta for the SEC Championship.

"It looks like more than likely he will not play,'' ESPN's Kirk Herbstreit said.

Harvin is the Gators’ second-leading scorer with 96 points (16 TD’s), and has 538 rushing and 595 receiving yards this season.

The winner of the game is expected to advance to the national championship game on Jan.
8 in Miami.

The Scores Report: Buffalo shocks Ball State

http://www.scoresreport.com/2008/12/06/buffalo-shocks-no-12-ball-state-ends-cardinals-perfect-season/

It’s amazing how just one play can turn the tide of an entire football game. Take a play in unranked Buffalo’s stunning 42-24 upset of No. 12 Ball State in the MAC Championship Game on Friday night.

Up 17-14 and driving for more points following a Bulls’ fumble, Cardinals’ RB MiQuale Lewis took a handoff from Buffalo’s 8-yard line and rushed straight to the pile on at the goal line. Lewis appeared to have gotten in for a touchdown, but officials placed the ball at the 1 and the call upheld following review. After a Lewis two-yard loss and a 5-yard false start penalty, the Cardinals faced 3rd and goal at Buffalo’s 8-yard line. Highly touted quarterback Nate Davis than scrambled on 3rd down, leaped for the end zone and was smashed by multiple Bull defenders. The ball came lose, was scooped up by Buffalo’s Mike Newton and returned 92-yards for a touchdown.

Ball State never recovered. On their ensuing possession, a botched snap led to another Cardinal fumble, and another Buffalo recovery and touchdown. Davis then fumbled once more in the fourth quarter, which led to yet another Bulls touchdown.

What’s amazing is that if officials determined Lewis got in the end zone earlier in the third quarter, Ball State would have taken a 24-14 lead and who knows, they probably would have went on to win and cap off their perfect season with a MAC title. For all intents and purposes, it looked like Lewis was clearly in. And before the botched snap occurred on Ball State’s next offensive possession, officials overturned a reception by the Cardinals that would have put them in the red zone and a chance to take the lead again after Buffalo went up 21-17.

But regardless of whether they were screwed or not, Davis and Ball State have to overcome those calls. There’s no excuse for four fumbles and personally, I thought the Cardinals were flat all night. And that’s not to take anything away from Turner Gill’s Bulls, because they played with intensity and fire the entire night.

This puts the debate to rest about whether or not Ball State deserves to play for a national title. One loss doesn’t ruin a great season, but a team can’t be even remotely considered in a title discussion when it losses to a previously 7-5 Buffalo team, especially when the elements were in Ball State’s favor. (The game was in Detroit at Ford Field, which is certainly more of a hike for Buffalo than it is for Ball State. Plus, with the game being on turf, that certainly played into Davis and the Cardinals’ hands with how good their offense is.)

BCS Guru: A Split Title for Florida, AP-Style

http://bcsguru.blogspot.com/2008/12/split-title-for-florida-ap-style.html

The BCS race will come down to the last game of the regular season. And we don't mean the Big 12 championship game between Oklahoma and Missouri.

The last few digits on the BCS standings, the ones between a place in the BCS title game and a Fiesta or Sugar Bowl berth, will be decided on the field of Aloha Stadium. In a game between Cincinnati and Hawaii.

This is not an alarmist declaration. It's a fact.

Go to Wes Colley's computer, and play God - and see for yourself. A Hawaii win may be enough to provide safe passage for the Gators as long as they win the SEC championship game. A Cincinnati victory, then Texas just might get its coveted rematch with Oklahoma.

This isn't the first time that a BCS title race is settled in Honolulu, in the very last game of the season. In 2003, a Hawaii loss to Boise State cost USC just enough computer and (the now-defunct) strength-of-schedule points to keep the No. 1-ranked Trojans out of the BCS title game, setting the stage for the first split title in the BCS Era.

We may have an encore in 2008.

If Florida beats Alabama and somehow finishes No. 3 in the BCS standings, then the Gators may very well play for the AP title in the Sugar Bowl. Now ranked No. 2 in the AP poll, Florida is a lock for the top ranking should it topple the Tide in the SEC title game. And no top-ranked team in the AP has ever lost its position after winning its bowl game.

Who will Florida face, in that scenario? The best the Gators could hope for is undefeated Utah in the Urban Meyer Bowl. That matchup also gives the Utes an outside shot of stealing the AP title if they can upset the Gators. If the Fiesta Bowl decides to spoil the party by taking the Utes, then the Sugar would end up with Alabama (in a rematch), Boise State or Cincinnati.

(The Guru has checked with BCS Administrator Bill Hancock and he has confirmed that in the event the BCS title game is an all-Big 12 affair, the Fiesta will have the first two picks.)

But let's deal with how and why Florida might not get to the BCS title game, even with a victory.

Here are the scenarios:

1. Alabama and Oklahoma win: Alabama vs. Oklahoma. There is zero chance for Texas to jump OU, even if the Sooners win a squeaker.

2. Alabama and Missouri win: Alabama vs. Texas. Also a no-doubter.

3. Florida and Missouri win: Florida vs. Texas. Take this to the bank as well.

4. Florida and Oklahoma win: Mathematically the most likely scenario and also the most uncertain. This is where the Cincinnati-Hawaii game comes in. If Hawaii wins, it's 95% Florida-Oklahoma, 5% Texas-Oklahoma. If Cincinnati wins, it's 60% Florida-Oklahoma, 40% Texas-Oklahoma.

Whoa!

Well, let's break down the standings. Florida is now a distant fourth, but should make up significant ground with a win over top-ranked and undefeated Alabama. Where Florida needs to catch up the most is in the computer rankings. This is where they stand now:

• Oklahoma .980

• Texas .940

• Florida . 820

Following scenario No. 4, AND a victory by underdog and host Hawaii, this is the projection:

• Oklahoma .990

• Texas .930

• Florida .930

If the Gators can achieve a dead-heat with Texas, or close to it, then their superior poll rankings will put them over the top.

Following scenario No. 4, AND a victory by favored Cincinnati, this is the projection:

• Oklahoma 1.000

• Texas .940

• Florida .910

That's where it gets complicated, and the voters will wield the hammer. The question is, do they know how to use it?

If the voters defect to Florida for the top-ranking, en masse on both polls, then the Gators will be in. But if they divide the votes three ways between Florida, Texas and Oklahoma, then the Gators would be in trouble. Furthermore, if some of the voters are trying to mete out their own justice in the Big 12 tiebreaker post ex facto, putting Texas ahead of Oklahoma on their ballots, then they'll only hurt ... Florida.

The Gators need the voters to put the Sooners in as a solid No. 2, creating some distance between themselves and Texas. They also want voters to put USC in the top 3 to further wedge down the Longhorns. So when it comes to the Big 12 title game, Florida wants an OU blowout so the Sooners can siphon off more votes from Texas.

Florida is already No. 2 in the Harris poll, so room for improvement there is less dramatic. The Gators need to - and should - finish No. 1 there with a victory over Alabama, and then they'd hope for a 70- to 100-point gap between themselves and Texas.

The coaches poll is where it gets tricky. The Gators are No. 4 there right now. They need to make a quantum leap there. If they finish behind Texas in that poll, they'd be in big trouble. A virtual three-way tie doesn't help, either. They need at least half of the 61 coaches put them No. 1 - and the rest to either split their votes between OU and UT, if not outright favor OU - to git 'er done.

All that illustrates just how important the Cincinnati-Hawaii game will be. Florida fans might want to stay up a little later to sleep a little easier. They can hope for the Bearcats, a freshly-minted BCS bowl team, to spend a little more time lost in the sights and sounds of Waikiki than worry about the resurgent Warriors. After starting the season 1-3, Hawaii has won six of eight - including the last three - to become bowl-eligible.

Longhorns fans, on the other hand, would want Hawaii to feel self-satisfied with the turnaround and be exposed once again by a BCS conference power, as it did in the disastrous Sugar Bowl last year. Otherwise, the AP title may be all Texas has to hope for.

With so much on the line, then, it's imperative for you to know whom to root for, and how much. So here's the breakdown:

Alabama - Roll Tide.

Oklahoma - Boomer Sooner.

Texas - If Alabama wins, root for Missouri. If Florida is winning, root for a close game. If Florida wins, root for Missouri, or at least a close game. And Cincinnati.

Florida - Go Gators, of course. In the Big 12 game, if Mizzou isn't going to pull it out, then you want OU to pour it on. And of course, Hawaii.

And be sure to say Mahalo if the Warriors do pull it out.

===

The Guru's projected BCS bowl games -

• BCS championship: Oklahoma vs. Florida

• Rose Bowl: USC vs. Penn State

• Fiesta Bowl: Texas vs. Utah

• Sugar Bowl: Alabama vs. Ohio State

• Orange Bowl: Cincinnati vs. Virginia Tech

P.S. And here's the Texas AP scenario: If OU wins a close one over Florida, the 'Horns may potentially claim the AP crown if they can stay ahead of the Sooners in the AP poll this week. They are only 8 points ahead in the latest poll. Of course, this gives Utah a chance as well.

BCS Guru: The Envelope, Please...

http://bcsguru.blogspot.com/2008/11/envelope-please.html

This is probably the most difficult projection the Guru has ever had to do. But here goes ...

No. 2 SHOULD BE Oklahoma.

But will it be? That's entirely up to the voters.

Logically, Oklahoma should be No. 2. But if the BCS is about logic, then it wouldn't even exist. And with all these voters - 175 in all, if they all vote - having foisted upon them a responsibility that they neither desired nor deserved, there really is no telling where they're going to go.

Nevertheless, they're asked to decide on the Big 12 tiebreaker, as the winner of the South Division will be determined by the BCS standings, among Oklahoma, Texas and Texas Tech. Whoever gets into the Big 12 title game will be the prohibitive favorite to beat Missouri and have the inside track to the BCS title game, against the SEC title game winner between Florida and Alabama.

Well, let's examine those three Big 12 South contenders, side-by-side:

1. Against Big 12 South teams: Oklahoma beat Baylor, Oklahoma State and Texas A&M - all on the road - by a +90 margin. Texas won all three at home by +68. Texas Tech won two at home and at A&M by +61. Advantage: Oklahoma.

2. Against Big 12 North common opponent: Only Kansas played all three and Tech won, 63-21, OU won (at home), 45-31, Texas won, 35-7. Advantage: Texas Tech.

3. None-conference opponents: Texas played Florida Atlantic, UTEP, Rice and Arkansas, teams with records of 25-23 and only Rice bowl-bound; OU played I-AA Chattanooga, Cincinnati (Big East champ), TCU and Washington, 20-15 (only count I-A teams) with two 10-win teams and a winless team; Tech played two I-AA teams and the other two, Nevada and SMU, are 8-16. Advantage: Oklahoma.

4. Head-to-head: Texas wants to talk about beating OU, 45-35, true, but this is not a pure head-to-head situation, it's a three-way tie and a circular argument. And just for logic's sake, the fact that Texas beat OU on a neutral field is a classic non-sequitur. You may deduce that Texas would've beaten OU in Austin, but nothing more - so essentially each team WOULD'VE won at home. The following is how these three teams did against each other, the research courtesy of our friends at Saurian Sagacity:

Oklahoma

Points Scored: 100
Points Against: 66
Net Points: 34
Total Yards: 1060
Total Yards Against: 844
Net Yards: 216

Texas

Points Scored: 78
Points Against: 74
Net Points: 4
Total Yards: 812
Total Yards Against: 1014
Net Yards: -202


Texas Tech

Points Scored: 60
Points Against: 98
Net Points: -38
Total Yards: 985
Total Yards Against: 999
Net Yards: -14

Taken in its totality, it's rather obvious that Oklahoma is the most impressive in the head-to-head results. Advantage: Oklahoma.

If last week's poll results stay relatively stable - given that every team in the top 10 either won or was idle - this is how the computer rankings should break down:

1. Alabama (.970), 2. Texas (.960), 3. Oklahoma (.940), 4. Florida (.880), 5. Utah (.830).

And the BCS standings would look like this:

1. Alabama (.987), 2. Oklahoma (.926), 3. Texas (.921), 4. Florida (.909), 5. USC (.797).

The biggest loser this weekend, without a doubt, is USC. The Trojans not only don't have a shot at the BCS title game, their AP title hopes also evaporated with Oregon State's loss to Oregon. By being forced to play in the Rose Bowl against Penn State, there is little chance for USC to claim the AP title, as opposed to a Fiesta Bowl matchup against either Oklahoma or Texas.

So, assuming the voters actually do their homework and not go nuts or conspiracy-happy, here's the Guru's projection of the penultimate BCS standings:

1. Alabama, 2. Oklahoma, 3. Texas, 4. Florida, 5. USC, 6. Utah, 7. Penn State, 8. Texas Tech, 9. Boise State, 10. Ohio State, 11. TCU, 12. Ball State, 13. Cincinnati, 14. Oklahoma State, 15. Oregon.

Charlseton Post: Swinney Deal Just Days Away

http://www.charleston.net/news/2008/nov/30/swinney_deal_just_days_away63491/

The "interim" tag will be removed and Dabo Swinney officially will be named Clemson head coach within the next few days. Athletic Director Terry Don Phillips will conduct a formal interview with Swinney this afternoon, and Clemson sources indicate a formal news conference will be held Monday or Tuesday.

"We are still going to go through the process," Phillips said Saturday after the Tigers' 31-14 victory over archrival South Carolina at Death Valley. "I want this day to be about Dabo and the players, and I'm very happy for them. You can draw your own conclusions."

Some Clemson athletic department staffers originally scheduled to leave Monday to accompany the men's basketball team to Illinois for an ACC-Big 10 Challenge game Tuesday night will remain home instead.

Swinney is expected to receive a contract of at least four years, a source said. Clemson does not want to let rival recruiters paint Swinney as a stopgap coach who might not be around long.

Phillips declined extended comment.

"I don't want to have a press conference right now," he said with a smile.

The Tigers are 4-2 under Swinney, with three wins in a row. Clemson (7-5) with its win over South Carolina became bowl eligible.

Swinney, 39, was Clemson's assistant head coach and wide receivers coach when Tommy Bowden resigned under pressure with the Tigers 3-3 overall and 1-2 in the Atlantic Coast Conference following a 12-7 loss at Wake Forest on Oct. 9. Despite never having been a coordinator, the Alabama native was named head coach with a promise from Phillips that if things went well, he had a good chance to keep the job beyond this season.

Swinney has not revealed his plans for a coaching staff. The most likely keeper is recruiting coordinator Billy Napier, promoted from tight ends coach to quarterbacks coach when Swinney took over. Napier has helped Swinney with play-calling.

"If you took the Virginia game out of the equation, it's been pretty obvious how we've improved (on offense) every week and how everyone has bought in," said Napier, a former Furman quarterback. "But we were fortunate to win that Virginia game ugly and maybe that woke us up a little bit."

Offensive line coach Brad Scott, the former South Carolina head coach hired as part of Tommy Bowden's original Clemson staff in 1999, also wants to stay. Jeff Scott, Brad's son, was promoted to wide receivers coach from graduate assistant when Swinney replaced Bowden.

"To see Jeff's love for the game and see how hard he's worked this week, I step back and I say 'I hope this can continue' and if so he really catches a break," Brad Scott said. "For me, you just don't know. You hope things turn out well. You hope coach Swinney is named the head coach here. He certainly deserves to be and maybe I'll be a part of that."

KnuckleCurve: Junichi Tazawa Signed by Boston Red Sox

http://www.knucklecurve.com/junichi-tazawa-signed-by-boston-red-sox/

According to numerous reports, Junichi Tazawa is about to be signed by the Boston Red Sox. The contract Tazawa, who is a pitcher out of Japan, will sign is unknown at this time.

Tazawa is an interesting story because the 22-year-old decided to bypass the regular Japan league draft to come to the United States. Instead of coming to the U.S. from the Japanese professional league, Tazawa is out of the corporate league in Japan.

Since Tazawa bypassed the Japanese draft, some Major League Baseball teams didn’t want to pursue him fearing repercussions from the Japanese professional league. After Tazawa bypassed the draft, the Japanese professional league made a new rule that banned players who elect to bypass the draft.

Tazawa’s main attribute as a pitcher is his fastball — which reaches 97 MPH on the radar gun. There’s a good chance that Tazawa will begin his Red Sox career in the bullpen.

Scout.com: Cowboys vs. Duckks in Holiday Bowl?

http://oklahomastate.scout.com/2/816790.html

The Oklahoma State Cowboys may be disappointed following Saturday night’s 61-41 Bedlam loss to the third-ranked Oklahoma Sooners but Larry Baber has some good news. The Cowboys became the favorites of the Holiday Bowl and are likely headed to the San Diego postseason game to face Oregon on Dec. 30, the Holiday Bowl president said following Saturday night’s game.

The Cowboys, 9-3, and the Ducks, also 9-3 following Saturday’s 65-38 victory over Oregon State, appear to be the two teams that Baber wants spending the last week of December in San Diego.

“When we get ready to pick I think (Oklahoma State) will be the best team in the Big 12, unless something happens next week (in the Big 12 Championship game),” Baber said minutes after speaking with OSU head coach Mike Gundy.

“As it sets now I assume the three 11-1 teams (Oklahoma, Texas and Texas Tech) will go two BCS and one Cotton (Bowl), and then we would have the Oklahoma State team. We could consider Missouri too but with that loss today (to Kansas) that didn’t really get us excited, especially if they lose again next week (in the Big 12 title game),” Baber continued.

“We have a choice in the Pac-10 in the conference runner-up, which at this point is Oregon and Oregon State, so we’ll get to pick between those two. With the way that Oregon won today it would be kind of difficult, I’m not saying it would be impossible, to pass over them and take over a team that they beat,” the Holiday Bowl president said.

“It was 20 years ago that this team was out there with Barry Sanders and we would kind of love to have them back. I’d just love to see them there again,” Baber said.

Baber said the Cowboys made quite an impression on him Saturday night despite losing by 20 points.

“(I like) the way they play ball. I did not see any quit out there at all. You look at this (stat sheet) and it shows with 10 minutes left in the game they were three points behind,” he said. “That Oklahoma is a good team. They may be one of the best or the best in the country. We’ll find that out in a few weeks. They played them right up to the end.”

AOL Sports: LeBron James Blasts Charles Barkley

http://sports.aol.com/nba/story/_a/lebron-james-blasts-charles-barkley/n20081128204909990007

LeBron James reacted strongly to Charles Barkley's comments that the Cavaliers star isn't showing respect for Cleveland fans and his teammates by discussing his possible free agency following the 2010 season.

"He's stupid. That's all I've got to say about that," James said Friday night before the Cavaliers' game against Golden State.

Barkley made the comments on TV and radio programs.

"If I was LeBron James, I would shut the hell up," the Hall of Famer said in a radio interview. "I'm a big LeBron fan. He's a stud. You gotta give him his props. I'm getting so annoyed he's talking about what he's going to do in two years. I think it's disrespectful to the game. I think it's disrespectful to the Cavaliers."

James, under contract for two more seasons, was bombarded with questions about his future when the Cavaliers visited New York to play the Knicks on Tuesday night.

The Cavaliers can offer him an extension as early as July 1, 2009. There has long been speculation James will eventually end up in one of the NBA's larger markets and the Knicks have cleared salary-cap space in anticipation of the 2010 free-agent class.

"I think July 1, 2010, is a very big day," James said when the Cavaliers were in New York. "It's probably going to be one of the biggest days in free-agent history in the NBA. So a lot of teams are gearing up to try to prepare themselves to be able to put themselves in position to get one of the big free-agent market guys."

College Football Talk: Last Game for Weis?

http://www.collegefootballtalk.com/2008/11/29/usc-destroys-notre-dame-last-game-for-weis/

USC was a 33-point favorite heading into tonight’s game against Notre Dame. The Fighting Irish still managed to underachieve.

USC won 38-3 in an ugly affair that was marred by fights before and during the game, and if this turns out to be the last game of the Charlie Weis era, it must be said that the Fighting Irish did not look like a well-coached team.

How bad was Notre Dame on offense? The Fighting Irish didn’t get a first down until the last play of the third quarter. Yes, USC has a great defense, but Notre Dame also has an incompetent offense. Weis, more than anyone else, deserves the blame for that.

He also deserves the blame for the fact that Notre Dame has now lost 15 games in two years for the first time in school history. Improving from 3-9 last year to 6-6 this year just isn’t good enough.

That’s not to say firing Weis is necessarily the right thing to do. Notre Dame has always paid lip service to the importance of continuity within its football program, and to the notion that contracts should be honored. But if Tyrone Willingham deserved to get fired, Weis does too. And Notre Dame may once again have a rebuilding effort on its hands.